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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model