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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 40

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to LA 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model