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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 10 for 1 yard (1-L.Shenault).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model