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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model