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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LA 17, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 4 yards (33-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.94 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP