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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 46-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to SEA 15, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-35-J.Hummel.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.48 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP