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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model