4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 86

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 46-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to SEA 36, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-D.Williams to SEA 38 for 2 yards (22-B.Corum).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.67 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 44, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model