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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
35.1%
LAC
64.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.002 vs Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.488 EPA/dropback
  • LAC defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO on 4 more days rest than LAC
  • NO offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NO

Nick Saldiveri G Out Shoulder
Cedrick Wilson WR Out Hip
Derek Carr QB Doubtful Oblique

LAC

Derius Davis WR Doubtful Hamstring
Quentin Johnston WR Doubtful Ankle
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hip
D.J. Chark WR Questionable Groin
Will Dissly TE Questionable Shoulder
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Groin
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Hip
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Toe
Kristian Fulton CB Note --
Khalil Mack DE Note --
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Note --

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 8
–
LAC 26

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 SAF NO (10:27) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at LAC 7, recovered by LAC-16-J.Scott at LAC 0. 16-J.Scott to LAC -5 for -5 yards (7-T.Hill). FUMBLES (7-T.Hill), touched at LAC -5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. NO 2 – LAC 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG LAC (15:00) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. NO 2 – LAC 3
  • Q2 01:40 TD LAC (1:40) 68-J.Salyer reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 2 – LAC 9
  • Q2 00:09 FG NO (:09) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 5 – LAC 9
  • Q3 09:01 TD LAC (9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 5 – LAC 15
  • Q3 01:09 FG NO (1:09) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 8 – LAC 16
  • Q4 11:59 FG LAC (11:59) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. NO 8 – LAC 19
  • Q4 03:30 TD LAC (3:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 8 – LAC 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:07) 16-J.Scott punts 59 yards to NO 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 21 for 3 yards (84-S.Smartt).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 44%

    (11:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:27) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at LAC 7, recovered by LAC-16-J.Scott at LAC 0. 16-J.Scott to LAC -5 for -5 yards (7-T.Hill). FUMBLES (7-T.Hill), touched at LAC -5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to LAC 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 17 for 5 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:10) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:45) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LAC 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (15:00) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:06) 43-M.Hayball punts 58 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 25 for 11 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:34) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to NO 4, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 13 for 9 yards (24-A.Finley).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (9:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to LAC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (:09) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 29%

    (13:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:56) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NO 5, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 59 yards to LAC 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 39 for 12 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 49%

    (6:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:59) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 30 for no gain (35-D.Bootle; 24-A.Finley).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (1:09) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (11:59) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (10:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:03) 16-J.Scott punts 67 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 46 for 18 yards (35-D.Bootle).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (6:49) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass deep middle to 16-B.Means to LAC 14 for 36 yards (32-A.Gilman) [93-O.Ogbonnia].