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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New Orleans Saints 2

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP