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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – New Orleans Saints 8

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP