Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(8:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to LAC 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 17 for 5 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model