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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LAC 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model