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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – New Orleans Saints 5

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NO 5, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model