Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – New Orleans Saints 5

(4:59) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 30 for no gain (35-D.Bootle; 24-A.Finley).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model