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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New Orleans Saints 2

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 16-J.Scott punts 63 yards to NO 4, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 13 for 9 yards (24-A.Finley).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP