Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(14:07) 16-J.Scott punts 59 yards to NO 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 21 for 3 yards (84-S.Smartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model