Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 95

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – New Orleans Saints 8

(9:03) 16-J.Scott punts 67 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 46 for 18 yards (35-D.Bootle).

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.79 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model