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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 5 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP