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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
56.7%
JAX
43.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Corey Ballentine CB Doubtful Ankle
Josh Myers C Questionable Wrist
Quay Walker LB Questionable Concussion
Devonte Wyatt DT Questionable Ankle

JAX

Maason Smith DT Questionable Ankle
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Hamstring
Foyesade Oluokun LB Questionable Foot
Esezi Otomewo DE Questionable Calf
Cam Robinson T Questionable Concussion
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
JAX 27

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:35 TD GB (11:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 06:07 FG GB (6:07) 17-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 02:46 TD JAX (2:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:58 FG GB (:58) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 13 – JAX 7
  • Q2 00:07 FG JAX (:07) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. GB 13 – JAX 10
  • Q3 05:17 TD JAX (5:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – JAX 16
  • Q3 00:31 TD GB (:31) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – JAX 17
  • Q4 14:12 TD GB (14:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – JAX 17
  • Q4 05:39 FG JAX (5:39) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. GB 27 – JAX 20
  • Q4 01:54 TD JAX (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – JAX 26
  • Q4 00:02 FG GB (:02) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 30 – JAX 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 17 for 8 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 73 yards to GB 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to 50, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-53-A.Mosby.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (6:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to GB 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (6:07) 17-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (:58) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to JAX 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 38%

    (7:55) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to GB 46 for 2 yards (97-K.Clark).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to GB 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Reed to GB 24 for 13 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 51-V.Miller).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to JAX 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%

    (5:39) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to JAX 4, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for 9 yards (80-B.Melton).