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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 93

Green Bay Packers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to 50, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-53-A.Mosby.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.06 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 51, worth -3.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model