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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 17-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model