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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP