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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP