Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(9:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to JAX 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model