Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Green Bay Packers 27

(13:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to GB 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Reed to GB 24 for 13 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 51-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model