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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to GB 46 for 2 yards (97-K.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.04 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model