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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model