4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to GB 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model