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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to JAX 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP