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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NE
22.1%
SF
77.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.230 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
SF 29
Projected margin: SF by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NE

Alex Austin CB Out Ankle
Michael Jordan G Out Ankle
Vederian Lowe T Out Knee
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Shoulder
Sidy Sow G Questionable Ankle
Caedan Wallace T Questionable Knee

SF

Javon Hargrave DT Out Triceps
Curtis Robinson LB Out Knee
Talanoa Hufanga S Questionable Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Illness
Jordan Elliott DT Questionable Foot
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Calf
Dee Winters LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 13
–
SF 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:29 FG SF (2:29) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NE 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 00:08 FG SF (:08) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NE 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 14:15 TD SF (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – SF 12
  • Q2 03:18 TD SF (3:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Uche]. NE 0 – SF 19
  • Q2 00:03 FG NE (:03) 13-J.Slye 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – SF 20
  • Q3 12:11 TD NE (12:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – SF 20
  • Q3 10:12 TD SF (10:12) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – SF 26
  • Q4 13:29 FG NE (13:29) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – SF 27
  • Q4 05:02 FG SF (5:02) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NE 13 – SF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%

    (10:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SF 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (2:29) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:08) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (8:11) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 54-F.Warner). NE-70-C.Wallace was injured during the play.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to SF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Cowing to SF 13 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:49) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to SF 39 for 11 yards (31-I.Guerendo; 48-T.Bethune).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 45
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (:03) 13-J.Slye 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (12:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

    (8:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Cowing to SF 12 for 1 yard (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to NE 28, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to NE 41 for 13 yards (22-I.Yiadom).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 17 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona; 53-C.Elliss).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:46) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to NE 32 for 15 yards (32-P.Taylor).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%

    (13:29) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Polk (27-J.Brown) [56-L.Floyd].

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (5:02) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.