Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(1:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to SF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Cowing to SF 13 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model