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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 63

New England Patriots 13 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Polk (27-J.Brown) [56-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model