Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 27 – New England Patriots 10

(5:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to NE 28, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to NE 41 for 13 yards (22-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.88 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model