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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 46

New England Patriots 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SF 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model