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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 92

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:49) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to SF 39 for 11 yards (31-I.Guerendo; 48-T.Bethune).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 92, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 50, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model