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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 51

New England Patriots 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Cowing to SF 12 for 1 yard (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model