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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 20

New England Patriots 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 54-F.Warner). NE-70-C.Wallace was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.53 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model