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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 36

New England Patriots 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model