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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 27 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model