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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 45

New England Patriots 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) 13-J.Slye 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.27 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model