4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIN
44.5%
NYG
55.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.129 vs Sam Darnold (MIN) -0.091 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIN

No players on the report.

NYG

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 28
–
NYG 6

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 FG NYG (7:19) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. MIN 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 03:56 TD MIN (3:56) 33-A.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 06:58 TD MIN (6:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – NYG 3
  • Q3 12:13 TD MIN (12:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – NYG 3
  • Q3 06:14 FG NYG (6:14) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. MIN 21 – NYG 6
  • Q3 04:26 TD MIN (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at NYG 10. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – NYG 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to MIN 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 37 for 12 yards (47-T.Summers). PENALTY on MIN-20-Jy.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:19) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 54%

    (13:51) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to MIN 1, impetus ends at MIN 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (6:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 30%

    (3:39) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:01) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 86-D.Slayton MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 17, recovered by NYG-24-D.Belton at NYG 13. PENALTY on MIN-0-I.Pace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 13. Penalty on MIN-0-I.Pace, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to MIN 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-24-D.Belton.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (8:34) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (99-J.Tillery).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (6:14) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:37) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-28-B.McCain.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to MIN 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (13:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN -2. Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:05) 17-R.Wright punts 26 yards to NYG 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (4:56) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:42) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to NYG 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 86-D.Slayton.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to MIN 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.