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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 8

New York Giants 6 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model