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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 28 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 17-R.Wright punts 26 yards to NYG 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP