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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 86-D.Slayton MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 17, recovered by NYG-24-D.Belton at NYG 13. PENALTY on MIN-0-I.Pace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 13. Penalty on MIN-0-I.Pace, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP