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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 21 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-28-B.McCain.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.29 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP