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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 40

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to MIN 1, impetus ends at MIN 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model