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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 63

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to MIN 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-24-D.Belton.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -1.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model