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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 31

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model