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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 11

New York Giants 6 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN -2. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.99 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth +0.15 EP
PUNT +0.99 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model